The flash HSBC China PMI came in a little higher than expected at 51.9 in Jan. This is usually a decent guide to the final numbers and does suggest things are getting better again at the start of 2013 after an apparent improvement at the end of 2012.
Yearly growth rates of industrial production seem likely to tick up from 10.3%, although we won't know that until March as China usually releases the first two months of the year at once given the effect of the timing of Chinese New Year.
The China PMI data have been improving steadily since mid-2012, although it is difficult to disaggregate how much of this is seasonal vs. cyclical.
But while YoY rates of growth of IP have improved along with the PMI data, its not so clear that the MoM data have improved. The series in the chart on the right comes from the last release from the NBS on industrial production and is seasonally adjusted (although appearances suggests there is still problems with this). It suggests IP growth has been better in 2H12 than 1H12, but hasn't accelerated into year end.
This may suggest that the better YoY numbers are more about base effect than better momentum, which is much like the story of the GDP data (see
this). This may be a further problem for Q1, given China will be lapping a particularly weak period.
