Data reported from CISA affiliated mills can be trusted to be accurate. This has slipped from November readings, although may be weather affected given very cold conditions. It is nonetheless much higher than the weak comps of December 2011, with the average through the final month of the year rising 9.3%YoY.
The non-CISA mills are more haphazard, which is also the case with the official data released by the NBS. Small mills tend to under-report production heading into the end of year to avoid government curbs given excess production capacity. Some regions tend to fall off the radar completely.
This is shown in the chart by the spike in CISA mills % of total production towards the end of the year. While its not as bad as last year, it still seems that these data are underestimating total crude steel production.
In the absence of detailed regional data, its best to stick to the CISA data in the next few months as a guide to whats going on. Currently it suggests steel run rates are pretty good and is a good sign that industrial activity and construction is holding firm.
