Emerging markets, however, have accelerated, to ensure that global IP managed small MoM in the last few months to November. While we are yet to get December data, it looks like global IP will be up 3.4%YoY in 2012, which is slower than 2011 but not disastrous given market ructions.
The big decline in Japanese activity puts the need for a weaker Yen into context. It may be argued that the immediate impact of a weaker Yen won't do much at a global level, as it will merely redistribute activity away from other countries like Korea.
This, unfortunately is not the case for the Euro area, which has seen its currency strengthen somewhat.
Emerging Asia is a very different story, with IP apparently accelerating sharply according to these data. This is a surprise to me, as the MoM Chinese IP data don't suggest nearly as aggressive a gain. Perhaps these data are now representing the pick up that happened in Q3.
A stabilisation in Europe and Japan won't be enough to ensure better IP growth for 2013 as a whole given have far they have slipped in 2H13. But a stronger Asian region and a steady US should ensure growth isn't too far away from the 3.4% recorded in 2012.
In any case, the average annual number glosses over the more important short term dynamics, which is much more important for markets. This could be positive if Asia continues its momentum and declines elsewhere turn to even very marginal gains.
