Sunday, 10 February 2013

China Steel: holding steady into CNY


The latest high frequency data from CISA on steel production suggests Chinese mills have maintained solid production rates through January.

It is a bit of a nightmare trying to compare these data with this time last year given the timing of Chinese New Year and the apparent swings in reporting of non-CISA mills, which seemed more severe in early 2012.

Overall it does look that mills were confident of demand heading into the holiday.  Whether that remains the case after CNY will be closely monitored, but it seems likely that things should remain solid until at least mid-year.

Stronger infrastructure spending and better housing market activity isn't likely to be cut off anytime soon by over-zealous policy makers.  But priorities can change quickly and I wouldn't be banking on smooth sailing in 2H13 just yet.















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