Chinese coal imports have remained very high, particularly for coking coal. It is encouraging that strong seaborne supply of thermal coal is being absorbed without upsetting prices further, with supply disruptions helping some indices and specs of coal to firm.
For coking coal, imports are double what they were last year, with shipments from Australia in particularly very high. With iron production rising, it would suggest a drop in apparent domestic met coal usage.
Huge exports to China is not ideal for producers, as China is in many ways the market of last resort. It appears that for coking coal prices to go meaningfully higher we need to see more demand pull from countries like Japan, Korea and India (as its not going to come from Europe).
Looking at month to month changes in steam coal imports doesn't tell the full picture given seasonal swings. The fact that imports are up 46%YoY and we saw some draw on stocks in China is good news, as supply strength is weighing further on prices. More recent disruptions and strong YoY comps from India have helped firm prices a little across different indices and specs.
