Monday, 18 February 2013

Nothing out of the ordinary in gold weakness

Gold slipped below $1600oz last week and has more recently settled a bit above this level.  The news that most are clinging to driving this decline was the release of the 13-F filings from funds outlining their positions in US securities at the end of Q4.  Holdings of shares in gold ETFs by hedge funds are often closely watched as they are seen as barometer of the smart money's attitude towards gold.

High profile funds like Soros and Moore Capital sold out of some of their gold late last year, supposedly because an improving outlook.  I wouldn't read too much into this.  First this only represents funds visible positions in physical gold via ETFs.  We have no idea what they are holding in OTC positions. Second, is it really the smart money?  Hedge fund performance hasn't set the world on fire in the last 18 months. Third, while these funds were selling, someone else was accumulating ETF holdings, which rose quite strongly in Q4.

Looking at the first half of February, there doesn't really seem to be too much interesting happening in gold outside currency movements.  If anything, perhaps there is a short term buying opportunity given gold is currently at the bottom of the recent band against the US trade weighted index.








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