For the market as a whole, it also looks like Johnson Matthey have revised lower their estimates of both supply and demand for 2012, with the deficit now larger than previous forecast back in November. With more major producers yet to report, perhaps the deficit will be even larger, although Lonmin surprised to the upside on production in 4Q12.
Palladium supply hasn't suffered as badly, not just because South Africa is a smaller proportion of global supply, but also because operations which proportionate produce a lot of palladium in SAf haven't been as badly impacted.
But this is a market in deficit and the case for a deeper deficit in 2013 will be emboldened by the production outlook for the world's largest producer Norilsk Nickel. While they hit there guidance for 2012 of ~2,700 koz, this is expected to be 100koz lower in 2013.
Palladium is a commodity which is set for multi-year deficits, unless the price moves far enough to encourage substitution, greater thrifting and more recycling. There is a question mark, however, on when we get to that point, as available stock is very murky. While Russian stockpiles run by state agencies have likely approached zero, this material has more than likely be shifted through the consumption chain rather than consumed entirely. So while I'd still be bullish, there is a large "known unknown" to be mindful of.
