US met coal exports in particular have been extraordinarily strong. March was a record month at ~79mt annualised. In the first 3 months of the year, US shipments have outstripped those made in 2011, when prices were close to $300/t for benchmark Australian met coal on the back of terrible floods in Qld.
With contract met coal prices settling around $156/t level, it is very surprising that US shipments have been this strong. Particularly considering the lower qualities are bringing in much lower prices.
US thermal coal exports are also up in the YTD, with the 11.6mt shipped in the first 3 months of the year ~2mt better than last year. Most analysts are looking for US thermal coal shipments to be down for the year, so unless there is a big pull back soon numbers will need to be revised up.
Looking at the different ports, it seemed there was a improvement across all the areas and types. Shipments from the East coast ports where incredibly strong, although preliminary data for April suggest a pullback.
This is partially to cover lost tonnes from Colombia following strikes and other issues in February. But the fact that US exports of high-cost coal can reach these levels without any improvement in prices suggests that overstocking is still an issue, despite better coal burn rates and high US natgas prices.
The gulf ports also saw a rise in March. While not at the same levels as seen at its peaks last year, shipments are still up substantially YoY in March and the year to date.
Finally, shipments of low rank coal via Canadian ports recorded a big jump in March. Easier logistics on warmer weather probably helped, with the YTD total down YoY thanks to very weak levels in January and February.
