This report is useful as a template for 2013, as it doesn't appear that there will be radical changes on the supply, demand & price equation this year.
Global LNG trade fell 1.9%YoY, which was the first fall in 30 years. Some have reported that demand side weakness contributed to slipping trade, but given LNG prices remained high, I think its more about the supply side than demand.
All regions saw a drop in exports, with plant maintenance and field declines affecting Indonesia and Malaysia, while small gains were record in other countries. But nowhere showed strong growth like Qatar did in 2011.
It appears the LNG market is now entering a window where there won't be major expansions for a the next 12-18 months, with then a flood of capacity available from 2015 onwards. But until then, it appears competition for spot cargos will remain tight.
In 2012 we saw a big shift towards Asia mainly thanks to further shutdowns of nukes in Japan. The pull of demand prices relative to oil in Asia saw European demand taper given cheaper alternative pipeline gas and some switching to coal.
The start of 2013 has played out similar to 2012, albeit with a squeeze in the UK market thanks to a cold winter and low storage availability. This has seen NBP prices shoot dramatically higher in the YTD.
While there is no doubt a lot of additional supply to hit the market in 2015+, the next 12-18 months should still be very profitable for those delivering spot cargoes into the market, which now accounts for ~25% of total LNG trade.
