What has changed from this time last year is not just the leadership, but also the perception that the new government is more tolerant of slower growth that the previous one. This is starting to lead to a seachange in forecasts for China, shifting closer to 7% from 8% previously (see this post on consensus forecasts).
The better news is that it appears that European manufacturing is finally lifting declines, with PMI's printing above 50 for the first time since July 2011. This is a shockingly long time for activity to be declining, with the subsequent pick up not looking at all strong. This truly speaks to the corrosive nature of financial crisis and the folly of austerity to try and fix it. But at least it seems the worst has past, not accounting for any policy blunders (which can't be counted out)
While for commodities the focus will be 100% on China, the return to growth in Europe is important for base metals in particular. To be sure, just removing the drag on growth will be important to demand/supply balances and stocking cycles. Balancing out both developments in these data, I think on balance its probably bullish rather than bearish.
