Past the point of maximum short interest?

The latest CFTC data on non-commercial positioning showed an ongoing pull back in short positioning in a number of commodities like gold, copper and platinum.

Copper seems the most fickle to a reversal, while gold seems to be all about the Fed and is moving in concert with bond yields. Platinum shorts are likely to dwindle if European leading indicators improve.

It would be surprising if gold came under the same degree of attack as a month or so ago, given it has largely been on the back of speculation of winding down QE, which FOMC Chairman Bernanke has been trying to hose down.  To be sure, with everyone revising down growth forecasts, it would be a surprise if winding down QE happens as soon as initially expected, particularly in light of the violent bond market reaction.

Copper has seen spiky increases in short interest, most probably driven by some of the more alarming developments in China and a stronger USD.

Prices have rallied off the lows of $6600/t seen in late July, as a positive arb into China and generally strong apparent consumption is supporting demand for refined metal.  LME stocks are coming down, with metal at Glencore's Johor warehouse now starting to be drawn from the long, built up queues.

That said, this period window of opportunity into China is starting to narrow and the seasonal softness in manufacturing compounded with macroeconomic concerns means that shorts are likely to be back in the drivers seat at some point in the near future.

Platinum shorts are still surprisingly large at present, even though leading indicators have been mostly better in the last few months.  This has perhaps been mitigated by the incredibly poor auto sales data in the last few months, but perhaps now is the point of maximum pain for EU autos if PMIs are now rising.