Perhaps growth in Q4 will slow a little given we are now lapping a period where several mine expansions and productivity improvements already started to take hold. Nevertheless, it seems likely that full year shipments will be close to 190mt.
Furthermore, it seem likely that growth in 2014 will again be solid. This growth is likely to be concentrated at the producers that contributed to the strength in shipments this year, bringing 2014 close to ~200mt.
Looking at next years production, it seems unlikely that Rio Tinto will record much growth. Most of the gains this year has come from brownfield expansion at its Hunter Valley operations, which has in part been about replacing some of the lost volumes from the Coal and Allied days.
GX is a different story, with expansions at Ulan West and Ravensworth North still to ramp towards nameplate capacity of ~8mtpa for each mine. This should lift GX's Australian thermal exports by 5-6mt in 2014
Whitehaven should also see some gains, although 2015 looks to be much more important as its large Maules Creek operation is expected to start to move tonnes. This operation has significant flexibility between thermal and semi-soft coals, depending on pricing. Idemitsu's Boggabri expansion is also expected to shift tonnes next year.
So still looks like exports will record decent growth in the next couple of years, albeit at a slower pace than seen recently. I'd imagine the project pipeline to slow markedly beyond that, with mega-projects in the Surat basin likely to be delayed until they can get the infrastructure costs down. But for those looking for supply cuts given the current surge in seaborne supply, its unlikely to come anytime soon.
