Chinese coal burn goes backwards in mid-Jan

With the timing of Chinese New Year impacting the release of NBS data, any snippets of information on the current trajectory in China are particularly helpful.  We have already had steel production for mid-Jan, which was ok, and the PMI data which was a little softer.  Coal-burn data into mid-Jan is the weakest of the three, falling 3% YoY.

These data, which covers around 65% of coal burn, were a lot lower than the official data in December, although the current performance of coal markets suggests that these data are more representative of demand.  Coal prices are weaker, inventories at ports are building and coal freight rates have plummeted.

Given we are still in the depths of winter, the swings in hydro generation are not as important as its still a relatively low share of power output.  It does appear that it has perhaps taken some share from coal burn, but this shouldn't distract from the fact that it looks like power demand was weak in the middle of January.