This doesn't appear to account for the latest deal announced between China and Russia for an additional 38 bcm of piped gas by 2018, which is likely to shift the demand and supply picture even further.
The new deal agreed by China and Russia is big in the context of current piped gas imports, which in 2013 were around 29.3 bcm. So far in 2014, imports via piped gas have been stable rather than growing, with shipments from the new Myanmar pipeline offsetting shrinking volumes from Uzbekistan.
This is understandable given the high cost of capex to initially get Russian pipelines into China and costs should drop as supply becomes scalable. Reports are that this project could ultimately provide up to 61 bcm of gas.
The IEA estimates an China will incrementally consume 150 bcm of gas by 2019, with have of that being supplied via domestic unconventional supplies. LNG was expected to account for the bulk of the rest of demand.
That probably remains the case even with the Russian pipeline deal given most additional regasification plants are planned in Southern provinces that don't have much planned infrastructure to transport gas from the North via pipelines.
China's LNG imports have been stronger in the year to date, particularly coming into the start of 2014. This is a surprise given global LNG supply has been mostly flat over the last 12-18 months, suggesting Chinese demand is displacing demand from elsewhere. So while much of the focus is on long-term contracts with Korean and Japanese buyers and the price they are looking to pay, it would appear that demand tension from China is already supporting higher prices.
