Thursday, 17 July 2014

CISA steel data stay healthy in early-July

Building on the monthly data released earlier this week, the CISA steel production data for the first 10 days of July suggests momentum has remained healthy heading into the month.

Daily production average 1.81mt, which is not far off record highs seen earlier in the year.

There is so far little sign that July has turned painful for steel production, although heading into August will prove to be a bigger test as the summer slowdown become more apparent. But for now it looks like Chinese activity continues to be solid.

This is likely to bolster iron ore prices in the short term, with there no clear signs that fading housing construction is severely undermining steel demand.  Indeed, if current trends persist into Q4, then the iron ore price could snap back to much higher levels seen earlier in the year.  I would still be cautious, but the balance of risks to the iron ore price has changed.