This run rate is certainly ahead of expectations, although analysts will be hesitant to upgrade full year expectations just yet. In particular, the prospect of a slower second half is a risk that many won't want to bet against just yet, particularly if housing policy gets more stringent.
All the strength in auto sales is thanks to passenger vehicle sales, which were incredibly strong in January at an annualised rate of over 20 mln units. The payback in February over Chinese New Year was a bit bigger than in 2011, but sales were coming from an incredibly high base.
Commercial vehicles on the other hand continue to struggle badly, sinking below the already weak 2012 levels. This is somewhat concerning, as it suggests many businesses are either not confident enough to invest, or still dont have the working capital to do so.
Against the backdrop of the big increases in social finance and property market activity, its worrying that credit doesn't seem to be finding its way into business investment.
