Chinese coal burn a little stronger in early March

Chinese coal burn appears to have picked up a little pace in early March, rising ~7%YoY in the first 10 days of the month.  Its not immediately clear whether this is due to better underlying economic momentum, or due to a weaker hydro generation, although we should get a better understanding of that in the next few days.  The steel production data from last week suggests the steel economy is struggling.

This is better news for the struggling coal market, although its too early to be bullish on a turnaround in prices.  While stocks at power stations have been falling, port stocks are much higher than this time last year.

Inventories at miners also appear to have built considerably over Jan/February when prices were a bit better. Inventories at key state-owned mines are now back to record levels.

The apparent pick up in coal burn growth is worth keeping an eye on as it may signal better news for the coal market and the broader economy.  But at this stage, its this is not sufficient to be bullish.