There wasn't a huge amount of change in the latest round of PMI data, with most headline indices either a little weaker or a little stronger. This suggests that growth in industrial activity remains steady ex-China, while Chinese activity appears to be weakening but not crashing.
The headline US ISM index was a recovered some of the losses seen in January, suggesting that weather was behind earlier weakness.
The details of the data were much more mixed. Production fell and inventories rose in the month, suggesting ongoing weather impacts to activity. This was offset in the headline index by a rise in new orders.
So while the ISM numbers were better, they are a definitely rebuttal of the idea that recent weakness is only about weather.
The Chinese PMI data didn't cause nearly as much commotion as last month, probably because many in markets are preoccupied with geo-politics.
The data were weaker, with the HSBC coming in a little higher than the flash estimate. The divergence between the government and HSBC index is not unusual, with the HSBC index probably having a better track record.
One part of the official data which isn't included in the calculation of the headline index are new export orders. These have remain below the 50 mark, which divides gains from losses, despite stronger growth in key export markets.
This is perhaps another sign that the RMB is too strong. While many have suggested that the
devaluation of the RMB is aimed stemming hot money flows, it could equally be seen as a way to support the export sector, which hasn't recovered as much as policy makers would like.
Manufacturing in both the EU and Japan remain on the path to to improvement after struggling over the last few years. This is what underpins a much better view for commodities consumption outside of China.
Chinese growth, however, seems to be much more at risk than the small decline in the PMI data suggest.
