But it is apparent that all the growth is being driven by the major Pacific supplier in Indonesia and Australia, which have both seen substantial growth this year.
This is mostly because while prices are weak, they are still able to find a home for the coal. India import consumption continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate, while these countries can continue to push tonnes into China. Improving productivity and producing more is a better alternative than shutting down production given the relative losses incurred.
What is more important is a much better balance in China. Seaborne supply has had an increasing influence on this, with imports now accounting for around a third of coal consumed in coastal provinces.
It was previously assumed that Chinese domestic supply would adjust in the event of weaker prices, given it was considered at the top of the cost curve.
But it has been 2 years of low prices, and there is little sign that this adjustment is forthcoming. Indeed, it appears that much of this high cost supply has already been displaced by the combination of weaker demand, rail capacity additions that reduced the cost of supply and stronger imports.
This leaves thermal coal prices stuck in the current rut, although there maybe opportunities seen like that in Q3/Q4, when prices rallied ~20% on the depletion of inventory.
