For example, power generation has been noticeably better in the last few months, rising 7.5%YoY YTD. Power availability has been a huge restraint on India's ability to grow as fast as many would like and reforms here will be interesting.
A big portion of the strength has come via greater coal burn, with private sectors IPPs making a large contribution. The pace of growth is actually a little lower than last year, but new power plants have continued to roll online in the early stages of the year.
From the perspective of coal imports, these new units mostly have linkages to domestic production, so this strength doesn't directly translate into stronger import demand as it did last year.
But stronger demand for domestic coal has tightened the overall market. Coal stock at government owned plants is now well below the high levels seen in 2013.
The number of coal plants with critically low levels of inventory is also pushing back to the highest levels since 2012.
Imported coal stock is still relatively high compared to the last few years, although has more recently deteriorated quite a bit.
This means we are likely to see a pick up in interest from Indian buyers in the not too distant future.
While this would be a positive if everything else was remaining the same, it does appear that other parts of the equation are moving in a negative direction. In particular, Chinese markets look to be weak, with Atlantic markets adequately supplied with coal burn weak.
So this probably won't push prices higher, but will perhaps be a market for those with excess tonnes desperately looking for a home.
